The 2017 harvest continues to grind along with reports of growers experiencing delays caused by the wide spread wet weather in most parts of East Coast Australia. According to the Bureau Of Meteorology, the heaviest rain event is forecast near Riverina and North East Victoria in the next four days.
While NSW is estimated to be 68% harvested, Victoria is only estimated to be about 31% harvested, with late rain a cause for concern. We have seen a strong reaction in the market base to the weather predictions. The largest movement of note is in the Geelong/Melbourne wheat values with Jan ’18 ASX trading at $278, up $12 this week alone.
This change demonstrates an expectation of a tightened balance sheet in the south, likely to come from downgrading due to rain or lower than expected yields due to hail/flash flooding.